Get probability-based delivery forecasts for your software epics. Run thousands of simulations to understand the range of possible outcomes and make better planning decisions.
Run thousands of scenarios to get statistically meaningful results
See 50%, 80%, 85%, and 95% probability completion dates
Interactive histogram shows the full range of possible outcomes
All calculations run in your browser - no backend, no waiting
Configure your parameters and click “Run Simulation” to see the probability distribution of your epic completion.
Monte Carlo estimation is a statistical technique that uses random sampling to understand the probability of different outcomes. For software project estimation, it simulates thousands of possible project paths based on your team's historical velocity data.
Instead of giving you a single estimate that's often wrong, Monte Carlo shows you the full range of possibilities. This helps you understand not just when you might finish, but how confident you can be in that date.
Input your epic's story points, team velocity range, sprint duration, and risk factors.
The tool runs 10,000+ simulations, each with randomly sampled velocities following your chosen distribution.
See the probability distribution of completion dates with confidence intervals at 50%, 80%, 85%, and 95%.
For external commitments or contractual deadlines, use the 85% or 95% confidence level. For internal planning and team goals, the 80% level provides a good balance between ambition and realism.
PERT (recommended) gives more weight to the most likely value and produces smoother results. Triangular is simpler but can feel more jagged. Normal assumes symmetric variation around the mean, which may not reflect real-world velocity patterns.
Look at your team's last 5-10 sprints. The minimum velocity should be your worst sprint, and maximum should be your best. If you don't have historical data, estimate conservatively and set confidence to "Low".
No. All calculations run entirely in your browser. Your data never leaves your device. This tool is completely client-side with no backend processing.